Will FC Yelimai win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 70¢ · $282 held · ends Oct 25

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$282.27

Combined PnL

$0.59

Smart Money Entry

71.7¢ → 69.5¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$230.41

Total Shares321

Combined PnL+$0.56

Yes1 trader

Total Value$51.87

Total Shares185

Combined PnL+$0.02

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 72.1¢	$192.39	$192.19	-$0.2	68% 30779-14814 (45593)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$51.84	$51.87	+$0.02	52% 16158-14689 (30847)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 70¢	$23.33	$24	+$0.67	50% 7629-7782 (15411)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 69¢	$13.04	$13.13	+$0.09	58% 31395-22700 (54095)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 72¢	$1.08	$1.08	+$0	58% 1363-997 (2360)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$192.39

Value

$192.19

PnL

-$0.2

Record

68%

30779-14814 (45593)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.84

Value

$51.87

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

16158-14689 (30847)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$23.33

Value

$24

PnL

+$0.67

Record

50%

7629-7782 (15411)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$13.04

Value

$13.13

PnL

+$0.09

Record

58%

31395-22700 (54095)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.08

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

1363-997 (2360)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.