Will FC Altai Oskemen win on 2026-10-25?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 59¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.6K
-$52.3
38.1¢ → 59¢
+55% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 55.3¢ | $670.87 | $872.96 | +$202.09 | 68% 30977-14876 (45853) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 36¢ | $642.41 | $499.46 | -$142.95 | 52% 16225-14766 (30991) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 43.4¢ | $303.99 | $184.62 | -$105.15 | 58% 31536-22821 (54357) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $17.48 | $10.64 | -$6.84 | 50% 7740-7799 (15539) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 62.3¢ | $3.58 | $4.14 | +$0.56 | 58% 1429-1045 (2474) |
Invested
$670.87
Value
$872.96
PnL
+$202.09
Record
68%
30977-14876 (45853)
Invested
$642.41
Value
$499.46
PnL
-$142.95
Record
52%
16225-14766 (30991)
VeryLucky888Invested
$303.99
Value
$184.62
PnL
-$105.15
Record
58%
31536-22821 (54357)
Invested
$17.48
Value
$10.64
PnL
-$6.84
Record
50%
7740-7799 (15539)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.58
Value
$4.14
PnL
+$0.56
Record
58%
1429-1045 (2474)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.