Will FC Kairat Almaty win on 2026-10-25?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 94¢ · $158 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$157.67
$27.95
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 65.4¢ | $104.4 | $113.39 | +$8.99 | 50% 8804-8737 (17541) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $9.95 | $36.07 | +$26.12 | 59% 13895-9640 (23535) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $3.29 | $3.5 | +$0.18 | 58% 1463-1078 (2541) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31.5¢ | $3.15 | $2.9 | -$0.25 | 55% 4844-4028 (8872) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 48¢ | $160.74 | $1.81 | -$7.08 | 58% 31660-22917 (54577) |
Invested
$104.4
Value
$113.39
PnL
+$8.99
Record
50%
8804-8737 (17541)
Invested
$9.95
Value
$36.07
PnL
+$26.12
Record
59%
13895-9640 (23535)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.29
Value
$3.5
PnL
+$0.18
Record
58%
1463-1078 (2541)
Invested
$3.15
Value
$2.9
PnL
-$0.25
Record
55%
4844-4028 (8872)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$160.74
Value
$1.81
PnL
-$7.08
Record
58%
31660-22917 (54577)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.