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2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 93¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$365.3

Smart Money Entry

88.1¢ → 93.3¢

+6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,337

Combined PnL+$63.45

Yes3 traders

Total Value$380.35

Total Shares6,639

Combined PnL+$301.85

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

527h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ImJustKen	Noavg 87.6¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$66.43	53% 3029-2635 (5664)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 6.2¢	$27.88	$337.71	+$263.25	53% 1040-935 (1975)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$49.77	$46.8	-$2.97	77% 8496-2510 (11006)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$1.17	$23.65	+$21.58	36% 1994-3513 (5507)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$1.98	$19	+$17.02	73% 7811-2875 (10686)

ImJustKen

Invested

$1,138.1

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$66.43

Record

53%

3029-2635 (5664)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$27.88

Value

$337.71

PnL

+$263.25

Record

53%

1040-935 (1975)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$49.77

Value

$46.8

PnL

-$2.97

Record

77%

8496-2510 (11006)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.17

Value

$23.65

PnL

+$21.58

Record

36%

1994-3513 (5507)

TyshaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.98

Value

$19

PnL

+$17.02

Record

73%

7811-2875 (10686)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

527h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.5%

93.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.