Jimmy Lai released by December 31, 2026?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 94¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$6.1K
$44.83
93.7¢ → 94.3¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AV Avamax | Noavg 93.6¢ | $6.0K | $5.7K | +$40.02 | 80% 381-93 (474) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 95.1¢ | $389.9 | $382.4 | -$7.5 | 60% 976-654 (1630) |
 smellyEllieCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.9¢ | $78.24 | $86.58 | +$12.31 | 50% 923-939 (1862) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.