Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-10-25?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 88¢ · $999 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$999.46
-$10.03
86.2¢ → 87.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 86.6¢ | $589.33 | $578.59 | -$10.75 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Yesavg 13.9¢ | $281.79 | $276.68 | -$5.12 | 55% 43123-35478 (78601) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 13.9¢ | $219.84 | $212.89 | -$6.96 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 84¢ | $61.95 | $63.79 | +$1.84 | |
LA LaarsY | Noavg 85¢ | $113.33 | $113.33 | -$0 | 50% 2978-2975 (5953) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $11.4 | $12.11 | +$0.71 | 53% 13553-11995 (25548) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 | 51% 6464-6262 (12726) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $7.7 | $7.66 | -$0.04 | 50% 7629-7782 (15411) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $1.05 | $1.09 | +$0.04 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
Invested
$589.33
Value
$578.59
PnL
-$10.75
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$281.79
Value
$276.68
PnL
-$5.12
Record
55%
43123-35478 (78601)
Both legs:
Invested
$113.33
Value
$113.33
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
2978-2975 (5953)
Invested
$11.4
Value
$12.11
PnL
+$0.71
Record
53%
13553-11995 (25548)
Invested
$10
Value
$10
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
6464-6262 (12726)
Invested
$7.7
Value
$7.66
PnL
-$0.04
Record
50%
7629-7782 (15411)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.09
PnL
+$0.04
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.