Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 56¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 25

Yes44¢No56¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

$24.21

Smart Money Entry

40¢ → 56¢

+40% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares5,087

Combined PnL+$22.15

Yes3 traders

Total Value$336.23

Total Shares555

Combined PnL+$2.06

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IM impaulARB<$100	Yesavg 47.5¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$153.51	61% 175-110 (285)
└ No leg	Noavg 47¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$154.24
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$0.73
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 57.7¢	$2.8K	$2.5K	-$312.53	55% 43123-35478 (78601)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 57.7¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$406.43
└ No leg	Noavg 51.6¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$93.9
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 39.8¢	$1.5K	$2.0K	+$22.73	52% 16158-14689 (30847)
CA Cannae	Noavg 40.1¢	$544.83	$544.01	-$0.82	53% 13553-11995 (25548)
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR	Yesavg 60¢	$300	$300	+$0	64% 973-559 (1532)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 49.6¢	$39.17	$39.12	-$0.05	68% 30779-14814 (45593)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$24.97	$26.93	+$1.96	51% 6464-6262 (12726)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$9.2	$9.3	+$0.1	50% 8728-8659 (17387)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 42.6¢	$6.51	$6.8	+$0.29	58% 1363-997 (2360)

impaulARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,674.47

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$153.51

Record

61%

175-110 (285)

Both legs:

No$1,318.0947¢+$154.24

Yes$1,356.3847.5¢-$0.73

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,803.58

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$312.53

Record

55%

43123-35478 (78601)

Both legs:

Yes$1,708.1457.7¢-$406.43

No$1,095.4451.6¢+$93.9

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,493.77

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$22.73

Record

52%

16158-14689 (30847)

Cannae

Invested

$544.83

Value

$544.01

PnL

-$0.82

Record

53%

13553-11995 (25548)

0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR

Yes

Invested

$300

Value

$300

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

973-559 (1532)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$39.17

Value

$39.12

PnL

-$0.05

Record

68%

30779-14814 (45593)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.97

Value

$26.93

PnL

+$1.96

Record

51%

6464-6262 (12726)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

8728-8659 (17387)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$6.51

Value

$6.8

PnL

+$0.29

Record

58%

1363-997 (2360)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.