Urawa Red Diamonds vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 2.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 91¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 83%
$2.4K
$307.51
66.1¢ → 90.5¢
+37% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 91%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 77¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$3.28 | 55% 43123-35478 (78601) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 50¢ | $440.85 | $669.59 | +$228.74 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
FO foooool | Underavg 64.2¢ | $451.63 | $503.52 | +$51.89 | 51% 6464-6262 (12726) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 13¢ | $37.29 | $44.82 | +$7.53 | 52% 16158-14689 (30847) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 51.8¢ | $20.97 | $35.46 | +$14.49 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $35.75 | $3.89 | +$1.59 | 58% 31395-22700 (54095) |
RN1Invested
$1,175.53
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$3.28
Record
55%
43123-35478 (78601)
Invested
$440.85
Value
$669.59
PnL
+$228.74
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
Invested
$451.63
Value
$503.52
PnL
+$51.89
Record
51%
6464-6262 (12726)
Invested
$37.29
Value
$44.82
PnL
+$7.53
Record
52%
16158-14689 (30847)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$20.97
Value
$35.46
PnL
+$14.49
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$35.75
Value
$3.89
PnL
+$1.59
Record
58%
31395-22700 (54095)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.