Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-10-25?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 83¢ · $22K held · ended Oct 25

Yes18¢No82¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.8K

Combined PnL

$-4.9K

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 82.5¢

+60% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$11.5K

Total Shares22,317

Combined PnL$-1.4K

No7 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares25,506

Combined PnL$-3.5K

Yes — 42%No — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TI tin54321CTR	Yesavg 57.8¢	$12.9K	$11.5K	$-1.4K	63% 40-23 (63)
RN1	Noavg 49.3¢	$6.5K	$4.7K	$-1.8K	55% 43048-35397 (78445)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 57.8¢	$5.2K	$3.4K	$-1.8K	52% 16123-14661 (30784)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 43¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$63.99	50% 8710-8632 (17342)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 51¢	$500	$247.5	-$7.5	51% 955-914 (1869)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 66.8¢	$184.93	$165.02	-$19.91	68% 30725-14776 (45501)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Noavg 68.4¢	$168.18	$131.94	-$36.24	53% 13537-11986 (25523)
└ No leg	Noavg 68.4¢	$150.05	$103.04	-$47.01
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32¢	$18.13	$28.9	+$10.77
GH ghostorder<$100	Noavg 41¢	$82	$97	+$15	68% 3911-1871 (5782)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Yesavg 19.8¢	$65.07	$88	+$22.93	55% 2949-2408 (5357)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19.8¢	$42.04	$47.7	+$5.66
└ No leg	Noavg 44.3¢	$23.03	$40.3	+$17.27
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$16.8	$15.45	-$1.35	51% 3525-3391 (6916)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 53.2¢	$9.02	$9.82	+$0.8	58% 1321-965 (2286)
GG GGLPLCTR<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$8.01	$7.5	-$0.51	50% 603-601 (1204)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 81¢	$6.97	$6.5	-$0.47	63% 22415-13239 (35654)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 28¢	$429.28	$5.1	+$8.86	58% 31334-22653 (53987)

tin54321CTR

Yes

Invested

$12,872.87

Value

$11.5K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

63%

40-23 (63)

RN1

Invested

$6,544.41

Value

$4.7K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

55%

43048-35397 (78445)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$5,200.31

Value

$3.4K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

52%

16123-14661 (30784)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,372.43

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$63.99

Record

50%

8710-8632 (17342)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$500

Value

$247.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

51%

955-914 (1869)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$184.93

Value

$165.02

PnL

-$19.91

Record

68%

30725-14776 (45501)

CannaeARB<$100

Invested

$168.18

Value

$131.94

PnL

-$36.24

Record

53%

13537-11986 (25523)

Both legs:

No$150.0568.4¢-$47.01

Yes$18.1332¢+$10.77

ghostorder<$100

Invested

$82

Value

$97

PnL

+$15

Record

68%

3911-1871 (5782)

takeormakeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.07

Value

$88

PnL

+$22.93

Record

55%

2949-2408 (5357)

Both legs:

Invested

$16.8

Value

$15.45

PnL

-$1.35

Record

51%

3525-3391 (6916)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.02

Value

$9.82

PnL

+$0.8

Record

58%

1321-965 (2286)

GGLPLCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.01

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$0.51

Record

50%

603-601 (1204)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$6.97

Value

$6.5

PnL

-$0.47

Record

63%

22415-13239 (35654)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$429.28

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$8.86

Record

58%

31334-22653 (53987)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.