Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (87%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Nagoya Grampus vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 3.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 13¢ · $32K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 43%
1 arb excluded
$32.1K
$2.0K
44.1¢ → 13¢
-71% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 55.4¢ | $8.1K | $13.2K | +$5.1K | 68% 30725-14776 (45501) |
CH chongchong37CTR | Overavg 46¢ | $14.4K | $12.6K | $-1.7K | 49% 64-66 (130) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 56.3¢ | $4.9K | $4.8K | -$96.83 | 52% 16123-14661 (30784) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 56.3¢ | $2.5K | $3.8K | +$1.3K | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 33¢ | $2.4K | $985.12 | $-1.4K | |
FR freeman123 | Underavg 97¢ | $1,000 | $891.75 | -$108.25 | 82% 505-110 (615) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 36.4¢ | $1.8K | $468.5 | $-1.3K | 55% 43048-35397 (78445) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $36.58 | $53.52 | +$16.94 | 58% 1321-965 (2286) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $12.55 | $16.92 | +$4.37 | 55% 2949-2408 (5357) |
RO Rocko33CTR<$100 | Overavg 9¢ | $1.34 | $2 | +$0.67 | 64% 851-474 (1325) |
Invested
$8,112.63
Value
$13.2K
PnL
+$5.1K
Record
68%
30725-14776 (45501)
Invested
$14,358.12
Value
$12.6K
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
49%
64-66 (130)
Invested
$4,876.35
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$96.83
Record
52%
16123-14661 (30784)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,000
Value
$891.75
PnL
-$108.25
Record
82%
505-110 (615)
RN1CTRInvested
$1,783.07
Value
$468.5
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
55%
43048-35397 (78445)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$36.58
Value
$53.52
PnL
+$16.94
Record
58%
1321-965 (2286)
Invested
$12.55
Value
$16.92
PnL
+$4.37
Record
55%
2949-2408 (5357)
Invested
$1.34
Value
$2
PnL
+$0.67
Record
64%
851-474 (1325)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.