Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Nagoya Grampus vs. Yokohama F·Marinos end in a draw?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 49¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Yes51¢No49¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$23.9

Smart Money Entry

74¢ → 49¢

-34% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 49%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes51%

No49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,154

Combined PnL-$29.42

Yes4 traders

Total Value$29.36

Total Shares95

Combined PnL+$5.52

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Noavg 74¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$22.95	55% 43048-35397 (78445)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 74.6¢	$261.84	$260.34	-$1.49	68% 30725-14776 (45501)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 74¢	$243.22	$238.39	-$4.83	52% 16123-14661 (30784)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 24.8¢	$95.11	$21.27	+$5.27	58% 31334-22653 (53987)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Noavg 57.5¢	$5.75	$5.6	-$0.15	55% 2949-2408 (5357)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Yesavg 42.5¢	$4.25	$4.4	+$0.15	64% 1314-751 (2065)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$1.81	$1.89	+$0.07	50% 8710-8632 (17342)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$1.76	$1.8	+$0.04	58% 1321-965 (2286)

RN1CTR

Invested

$1,132.2

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$22.95

Record

55%

43048-35397 (78445)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$261.84

Value

$260.34

PnL

-$1.49

Record

68%

30725-14776 (45501)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$243.22

Value

$238.39

PnL

-$4.83

Record

52%

16123-14661 (30784)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.11

Value

$21.27

PnL

+$5.27

Record

58%

31334-22653 (53987)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Invested

$5.75

Value

$5.6

PnL

-$0.15

Record

55%

2949-2408 (5357)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.25

Value

$4.4

PnL

+$0.15

Record

64%

1314-751 (2065)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.81

Value

$1.89

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

8710-8632 (17342)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.76

Value

$1.8

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

1321-965 (2286)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 49%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.