Kawasaki Frontale vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 4.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 90¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$2.1K
-$41.29
83.5¢ → 89.5¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 90%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 87¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$66.2 | 50% 8728-8659 (17387) |
FO foooool | Underavg 72.8¢ | $387.01 | $439.65 | +$52.64 | 51% 6464-6262 (12726) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 18¢ | $257.58 | $250.42 | -$7.16 | 55% 43123-35478 (78601) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 84.3¢ | $185.02 | $168.74 | -$16.28 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 6.5¢ | $39.82 | $36.95 | -$2.88 | 52% 16158-14689 (30847) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 90¢ | $6.95 | $5.54 | -$1.41 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
Invested
$1,279.93
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$66.2
Record
50%
8728-8659 (17387)
Invested
$387.01
Value
$439.65
PnL
+$52.64
Record
51%
6464-6262 (12726)
RN1CTRInvested
$257.58
Value
$250.42
PnL
-$7.16
Record
55%
43123-35478 (78601)
Invested
$185.02
Value
$168.74
PnL
-$16.28
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
Invested
$39.82
Value
$36.95
PnL
-$2.88
Record
52%
16158-14689 (30847)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$6.95
Value
$5.54
PnL
-$1.41
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.