Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (80%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 3.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (17%) · Over at 21¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 17%
2 arb excluded
$8.0K
$184.8
Research grade
AvoidOver at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors Under 80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 53.4¢ | $4.6K | $5.0K | +$451.58 | 52% 16158-14689 (30847) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 53.4¢ | $3.2K | $3.0K | -$142.66 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 34.4¢ | $1.4K | $2.0K | +$594.24 | |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 45.5¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$136.51 | 55% 43123-35478 (78601) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 54.4¢ | $228.72 | $277.35 | +$48.63 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Underavg 69.5¢ | $214.78 | $196.02 | -$18.76 | 51% 6464-6262 (12726) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 69.5¢ | $133.4 | $133.37 | -$0.02 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 39.6¢ | $81.38 | $62.64 | -$18.74 | |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 65.2¢ | $24.78 | $26.41 | +$1.63 | 50% 8728-8659 (17387) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $17.14 | $14.77 | -$2.37 | 59% 13747-9558 (23305) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 63.7¢ | $9.73 | $10.07 | +$0.35 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 65¢ | $3.53 | $3.58 | +$0.05 | 58% 31395-22700 (54095) |
Invested
$4,560.72
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$451.58
Record
52%
16158-14689 (30847)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$2,306.04
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$136.51
Record
55%
43123-35478 (78601)
Invested
$228.72
Value
$277.35
PnL
+$48.63
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
Invested
$214.78
Value
$196.02
PnL
-$18.76
Record
51%
6464-6262 (12726)
Both legs:
Invested
$24.78
Value
$26.41
PnL
+$1.63
Record
50%
8728-8659 (17387)
Invested
$17.14
Value
$14.77
PnL
-$2.37
Record
59%
13747-9558 (23305)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$9.73
Value
$10.07
PnL
+$0.35
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$3.53
Value
$3.58
PnL
+$0.05
Record
58%
31395-22700 (54095)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.