Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Kawasaki Frontale leading at halftime?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 0.1¢ · $431 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
$430.66
$200.34
35¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Noavg 9¢ | $30.07 | $207.15 | +$177.08 | 55% 43123-35478 (78601) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 61¢ | $145.5 | $185.99 | +$40.5 | 58% 31395-22700 (54095) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $21.08 | $21.08 | +$0 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Yesavg 85¢ | $33.15 | $14.82 | -$18.33 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 20¢ | $0.52 | $1.61 | +$1.09 | 50% 8728-8659 (17387) |
RN1CTRInvested
$30.07
Value
$207.15
PnL
+$177.08
Record
55%
43123-35478 (78601)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$145.5
Value
$185.99
PnL
+$40.5
Record
58%
31395-22700 (54095)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$21.08
Value
$21.08
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
Invested
$33.15
Value
$14.82
PnL
-$18.33
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
Invested
$0.52
Value
$1.61
PnL
+$1.09
Record
50%
8728-8659 (17387)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.