Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 25

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

-$690.8

Smart Money Entry

88.6¢ → 98.9¢

+12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares7,428

Combined PnL-$648.93

Yes2 traders

Total Value$51.97

Total Shares2,151

Combined PnL-$41.86

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Noavg 88¢	$5.0K	$4.3K	-$710	93% 703-53 (756)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 91¢	$2.8K	$3.9K	+$1.1K	52% 16158-14689 (30847)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 12¢	$1.3K	$2.7K	+$1.4K
└ No leg	Noavg 91¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$244.53
RN1	Noavg 91¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$93.35	55% 43123-35478 (78601)
HRTrading	Noavg 87.5¢	$210.04	$185.85	-$24.19	58% 1363-997 (2360)
SA Saber-greed<$100	Noavg 88¢	$57.05	$48.95	-$8.1	59% 2251-1567 (3818)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$58.54	$44.14	-$14.41	50% 8728-8659 (17387)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$35.29	$7.83	-$27.46	68% 30779-14814 (45593)

Momo63

Invested

$4,998.39

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$710

Record

93%

703-53 (756)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$2,763.1

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

52%

16158-14689 (30847)

Both legs:

Yes$1,327.4912¢+$1.4K

No$1,435.6291¢-$244.53

RN1

Invested

$1,321.09

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$93.35

Record

55%

43123-35478 (78601)

HRTrading

Invested

$210.04

Value

$185.85

PnL

-$24.19

Record

58%

1363-997 (2360)

Saber-greed<$100

Invested

$57.05

Value

$48.95

PnL

-$8.1

Record

59%

2251-1567 (3818)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.54

Value

$44.14

PnL

-$14.41

Record

50%

8728-8659 (17387)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.29

Value

$7.83

PnL

-$27.46

Record

68%

30779-14814 (45593)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.