Will Kawasaki Frontale vs. Fagiano Okayama end in a draw?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 90¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$4.2K
$274.36
77.5¢ → 89.5¢
+16% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 79¢ | $3.1K | $3.3K | +$231.97 | 55% 43123-35478 (78601) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 71.5¢ | $745.04 | $785.22 | +$41.19 | 58% 31395-22700 (54095) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 80.8¢ | $54.75 | $57.61 | +$2.85 | 52% 16158-14689 (30847) |
FO foooool<$100 | Noavg 78.9¢ | $41.52 | $39.73 | -$1.79 | 51% 6464-6262 (12726) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $21 | $21.14 | +$0.14 | 53% 13553-11995 (25548) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.2¢ | $1.82 | $1.85 | +$0.02 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $1.86 | $1.84 | -$0.02 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
RN1Invested
$3,074.14
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$231.97
Record
55%
43123-35478 (78601)
VeryLucky888Invested
$745.04
Value
$785.22
PnL
+$41.19
Record
58%
31395-22700 (54095)
Invested
$54.75
Value
$57.61
PnL
+$2.85
Record
52%
16158-14689 (30847)
Invested
$41.52
Value
$39.73
PnL
-$1.79
Record
51%
6464-6262 (12726)
Invested
$21
Value
$21.14
PnL
+$0.14
Record
53%
13553-11995 (25548)
Invested
$1.82
Value
$1.85
PnL
+$0.02
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.86
Value
$1.84
PnL
-$0.02
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.