Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Fagiano Okayama: Both Teams to Score
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 50%
$1.1K
$42.69
49.3¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO foooool | Yesavg 56.8¢ | $451.44 | $419.46 | -$31.99 | 51% 6464-6262 (12726) |
 RN1CTR | Noavg 51¢ | $399.61 | $407.45 | +$7.84 | 55% 43123-35478 (78601) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 46.2¢ | $190.46 | $257.77 | +$67.31 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 48.2¢ | $16.1 | $20.88 | +$4.78 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
VA Vampiro1<$100 | Yesavg 66¢ | $9.7 | $4.7 | -$5 | 75% 2342-768 (3110) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Yesavg 61¢ | $3.78 | $3.53 | -$0.25 | 63% 2554-1471 (4025) |
Invested
$451.44
Value
$419.46
PnL
-$31.99
Record
51%
6464-6262 (12726)
RN1CTRInvested
$399.61
Value
$407.45
PnL
+$7.84
Record
55%
43123-35478 (78601)
Invested
$190.46
Value
$257.77
PnL
+$67.31
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$16.1
Value
$20.88
PnL
+$4.78
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
Invested
$9.7
Value
$4.7
PnL
-$5
Record
75%
2342-768 (3110)
Invested
$3.78
Value
$3.53
PnL
-$0.25
Record
63%
2554-1471 (4025)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.