FC Tōkyō vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 5.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 77¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25

Over23¢Under77¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$247.97

Smart Money Entry

78¢ → 76.8¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over23%

Under77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares6,457

Combined PnL-$197.23

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares7,341

Combined PnL-$50.74

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 80.4¢	$3.9K	$3.7K	-$151.6	55% 43123-35478 (78601)
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72	Underavg 71¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$45.89	72% 1822-715 (2537)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 19.1¢	$913.22	$817.6	-$95.63	50% 8728-8659 (17387)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Overavg 16¢	$216.13	$295.38	+$79.26	68% 30779-14814 (45593)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 8¢	$110	$75.63	-$34.38	52% 16158-14689 (30847)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 94¢	$49.82	$50.09	+$0.27	51% 6464-6262 (12726)

RN1

Under

Invested

$3,862.57

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$151.6

Record

55%

43123-35478 (78601)

0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72

Under

Invested

$1,184.84

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$45.89

Record

72%

1822-715 (2537)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$913.22

Value

$817.6

PnL

-$95.63

Record

50%

8728-8659 (17387)

UpTheBluesCTR

Over

Invested

$216.13

Value

$295.38

PnL

+$79.26

Record

68%

30779-14814 (45593)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$110

Value

$75.63

PnL

-$34.38

Record

52%

16158-14689 (30847)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$49.82

Value

$50.09

PnL

+$0.27

Record

51%

6464-6262 (12726)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.7%

76.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.