FC Tōkyō vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 3.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 71¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 100%
$4.2K
$279.83
70.9¢ → 71¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 71%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 70.7¢ | $2.7K | $2.8K | +$287.01 | 52% 16158-14689 (30847) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 71¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$0 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
FO foooool | Underavg 74.4¢ | $158.27 | $151.01 | -$7.26 | 51% 6464-6262 (12726) |
 HRTrading | Underavg 70.9¢ | $104.64 | $104.73 | +$0.08 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
Invested
$2,730.1
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$287.01
Record
52%
16158-14689 (30847)
Invested
$1,161.43
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
Invested
$158.27
Value
$151.01
PnL
-$7.26
Record
51%
6464-6262 (12726)
HRTradingInvested
$104.64
Value
$104.73
PnL
+$0.08
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.