Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FC Tōkyō vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 2.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 63%
1 arb excluded
$12.6K
-$175.76
31.1¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 68¢ | $6.6K | $7.3K | +$688.19 | 52% 16158-14689 (30847) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 68¢ | $4.7K | $4.6K | -$31.51 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 23.5¢ | $1.9K | $2.6K | +$719.7 | |
SN SnakeBall | Overavg 81.6¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$28.58 | 50% 8728-8659 (17387) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 24.1¢ | $1.9K | $1.5K | -$397.14 | 55% 43123-35478 (78601) |
KY Kyn008CTR | Underavg 44¢ | $886.32 | $1.0K | +$141.01 | 51% 189-185 (374) |
LA LaarsYCTR | Underavg 49¢ | $490 | $495 | +$5 | 50% 2978-2975 (5953) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 49.2¢ | $363.16 | $376.76 | +$13.6 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
FO foooool | Overavg 58.4¢ | $141.01 | $180.03 | +$39.01 | 51% 6464-6262 (12726) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 99¢ | $49.5 | $48.75 | -$0.75 | 59% 13747-9558 (23305) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 48.3¢ | $21.84 | $16.78 | -$5.07 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
Invested
$6,564.38
Value
$7.3K
PnL
+$688.19
Record
52%
16158-14689 (30847)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,665.82
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$28.58
Record
50%
8728-8659 (17387)
RN1CTRInvested
$1,886.73
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$397.14
Record
55%
43123-35478 (78601)
Invested
$886.32
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$141.01
Record
51%
189-185 (374)
Invested
$490
Value
$495
PnL
+$5
Record
50%
2978-2975 (5953)
Invested
$363.16
Value
$376.76
PnL
+$13.6
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
Invested
$141.01
Value
$180.03
PnL
+$39.01
Record
51%
6464-6262 (12726)
Invested
$49.5
Value
$48.75
PnL
-$0.75
Record
59%
13747-9558 (23305)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$21.84
Value
$16.78
PnL
-$5.07
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.