Spread: FC Tōkyō (-1.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold FC Mito Holly Hock (71%) · FC Mito Holly Hock at 58¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
FC Mito Holly Hock
7
FC Mito Holly Hock 71%
$1.8K
-$110.63
52.8¢ → 58¢
+10% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralFC Mito Holly Hock at 58%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LZ lzh1 | FC Mito Holly Hockavg 52.6¢ | $836.86 | $826.78 | -$10.08 | 43% 408-541 (949) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | FC Tōkyōavg 46.6¢ | $634.46 | $538.24 | -$96.22 | 52% 16158-14689 (30847) |
 VeryLucky888 | FC Mito Holly Hockavg 52.4¢ | $388.01 | $332.39 | -$4.12 | 58% 31395-22700 (54095) |
FO foooool<$100 | FC Mito Holly Hockavg 60¢ | $65.12 | $64.64 | -$0.48 | 51% 6464-6262 (12726) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | FC Mito Holly Hockavg 53¢ | $21.48 | $21.08 | -$0.41 | 50% 8728-8659 (17387) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | FC Tōkyōavg 46¢ | $17.7 | $18.47 | +$0.77 | 55% 43123-35478 (78601) |
 HRTrading<$100 | FC Mito Holly Hockavg 56¢ | $1.12 | $1.04 | -$0.08 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
Invested
$836.86
Value
$826.78
PnL
-$10.08
Record
43%
408-541 (949)
Invested
$634.46
Value
$538.24
PnL
-$96.22
Record
52%
16158-14689 (30847)
VeryLucky888Invested
$388.01
Value
$332.39
PnL
-$4.12
Record
58%
31395-22700 (54095)
Invested
$65.12
Value
$64.64
PnL
-$0.48
Record
51%
6464-6262 (12726)
Invested
$21.48
Value
$21.08
PnL
-$0.41
Record
50%
8728-8659 (17387)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$17.7
Value
$18.47
PnL
+$0.77
Record
55%
43123-35478 (78601)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.12
Value
$1.04
PnL
-$0.08
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.