Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-10-25?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 96¢ · $29K held · ended Oct 25

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

95¢ → 96.3¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$25.7K

Total Shares28,372

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$334.93

Total Shares4,800

Combined PnL+$106.86

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Noavg 97¢	$17.6K	$16.3K	$-1.3K	93% 703-53 (756)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 91¢	$6.7K	$6.6K	-$73.53	50% 7629-7782 (15411)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 92.6¢	$2.6K	$3.0K	+$464.07	52% 16158-14689 (30847)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 6.9¢	$1.1K	$1.6K	+$505.07
└ No leg	Noavg 92.6¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$41
RN1	Noavg 96.3¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0.93	55% 43123-35478 (78601)
CA Cannae	Noavg 91.2¢	$620.56	$614.45	-$6.11	53% 13553-11995 (25548)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 91¢	$546	$540	-$9	58% 31395-22700 (54095)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 90¢	$450	$450	+$2.5	51% 960-920 (1880)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 3.2¢	$57.83	$179.34	+$121.5	50% 8728-8659 (17387)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$49.97	$76.27	+$26.3	51% 6464-6262 (12726)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.2¢	$86.22	$48.37	-$37.85	68% 30779-14814 (45593)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$34.44	$39.05	+$4.61	58% 1363-997 (2360)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$34.05	$30.95	-$3.1	59% 13747-9558 (23305)

Momo63

Invested

$17,566.08

Value

$16.3K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

93%

703-53 (756)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$6,691.23

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$73.53

Record

50%

7629-7782 (15411)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$2,561.23

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$464.07

Record

52%

16158-14689 (30847)

Both legs:

Yes$1,108.966.9¢+$505.07

No$1,452.2792.6¢-$41

RN1

Invested

$1,175.61

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0.93

Record

55%

43123-35478 (78601)

Cannae

Invested

$620.56

Value

$614.45

PnL

-$6.11

Record

53%

13553-11995 (25548)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$546

Value

$540

PnL

-$9

Record

58%

31395-22700 (54095)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$450

Value

$450

PnL

+$2.5

Record

51%

960-920 (1880)

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$57.83

Value

$179.34

PnL

+$121.5

Record

50%

8728-8659 (17387)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.97

Value

$76.27

PnL

+$26.3

Record

51%

6464-6262 (12726)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$86.22

Value

$48.37

PnL

-$37.85

Record

68%

30779-14814 (45593)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$34.44

Value

$39.05

PnL

+$4.61

Record

58%

1363-997 (2360)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.05

Value

$30.95

PnL

-$3.1

Record

59%

13747-9558 (23305)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.4%

96.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.