Will FC Tōkyō vs. FC Mito Holly Hock end in a draw?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $586 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$586.38
-$52.76
93¢ → 100¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 97¢ | $434.5 | $414.53 | -$19.97 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
SP spyGoodLuck77 | Noavg 85¢ | $115.74 | $109.61 | -$6.13 | 64% 1320-754 (2074) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $41.46 | $40.7 | -$0.76 | 58% 31395-22700 (54095) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $42.45 | $16.52 | -$25.93 | 52% 16158-14689 (30847) |
FO foooool<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $5 | $5.03 | +$0.03 | 51% 6464-6262 (12726) |
Invested
$434.5
Value
$414.53
PnL
-$19.97
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
Invested
$115.74
Value
$109.61
PnL
-$6.13
Record
64%
1320-754 (2074)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$41.46
Value
$40.7
PnL
-$0.76
Record
58%
31395-22700 (54095)
Invested
$42.45
Value
$16.52
PnL
-$25.93
Record
52%
16158-14689 (30847)
Invested
$5
Value
$5.03
PnL
+$0.03
Record
51%
6464-6262 (12726)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.