FC Tōkyō vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: Both Teams to Score

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 94¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$23.4

Smart Money Entry

70.1¢ → 94¢

+34% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$359.91

Total Shares827

Combined PnL+$4.69

No3 traders

Total Value$406.69

Total Shares553

Combined PnL+$18.71

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Yesavg 43¢	$319.55	$323.27	+$3.72	55% 43123-35478 (78601)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Yesavg 44.2¢	$382.66	$309.12	-$73.55	51% 6464-6262 (12726)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 44.2¢	$274.41	$192.27	-$82.14
└ No leg	Noavg 63.9¢	$108.26	$116.85	+$8.59
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 81.1¢	$262.85	$277.16	+$14.31	50% 8728-8659 (17387)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 54.5¢	$120.94	$125.29	+$4.36	68% 30779-14814 (45593)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 43.8¢	$81.37	$36.65	+$0.98	58% 31395-22700 (54095)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 56¢	$4.2	$4.24	+$0.04	58% 1363-997 (2360)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$319.55

Value

$323.27

PnL

+$3.72

Record

55%

43123-35478 (78601)

fooooolARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$382.66

Value

$309.12

PnL

-$73.55

Record

51%

6464-6262 (12726)

Both legs:

Yes$274.4144.2¢-$82.14

No$108.2663.9¢+$8.59

SnakeBall

Invested

$262.85

Value

$277.16

PnL

+$14.31

Record

50%

8728-8659 (17387)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$120.94

Value

$125.29

PnL

+$4.36

Record

68%

30779-14814 (45593)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.37

Value

$36.65

PnL

+$0.98

Record

58%

31395-22700 (54095)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.24

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

1363-997 (2360)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.