Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (82%). 1 of 1 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 4.5
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Over
1
Over 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
$14.34
Research grade
AvoidOver at 18%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Underavg 84.7¢ | $727.48 | $1.2K | +$449.96 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 84.7¢ | $668.49 | $646.98 | -$21.51 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 2¢ | $58.99 | $530.46 | +$471.47 | |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 17¢ | $245.94 | $260.28 | +$14.34 | 55% 43123-35478 (78601) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
18.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.