Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (74%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 27¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 80%
1 arb excluded
$2.6K
$82.16
48.3¢ → 26.5¢
-45% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 48.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.5K | +$245.08 | 52% 16158-14689 (30847) |
IM impaul | Overavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $865.12 | -$164.78 | 61% 175-110 (285) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $93.01 | $94.91 | +$1.9 | 55% 43123-35478 (78601) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Overavg 66¢ | $103.89 | $86.04 | -$17.85 | 51% 6464-6262 (12726) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 55.6¢ | $48.89 | $51.04 | +$2.15 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 66¢ | $55 | $35 | -$20 | |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 19.6¢ | $5.14 | $4.44 | -$0.69 | 50% 8728-8659 (17387) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 36.1¢ | $1.09 | $1.75 | +$0.66 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
Invested
$1,258.63
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$245.08
Record
52%
16158-14689 (30847)
Invested
$1,029.91
Value
$865.12
PnL
-$164.78
Record
61%
175-110 (285)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$93.01
Value
$94.91
PnL
+$1.9
Record
55%
43123-35478 (78601)
Invested
$103.89
Value
$86.04
PnL
-$17.85
Record
51%
6464-6262 (12726)
Both legs:
Invested
$5.14
Value
$4.44
PnL
-$0.69
Record
50%
8728-8659 (17387)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.09
Value
$1.75
PnL
+$0.66
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.