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3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$165.4

Smart Money Entry

88.9¢ → 98.6¢

+11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,611

Combined PnL+$152.53

Yes2 traders

Total Value$91.46

Total Shares2,730

Combined PnL+$12.87

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

515h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ImJustKen	Noavg 88.5¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$153.17	53% 3017-2635 (5652)
theta-thunbergCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.36	$84.6	+$23.44	56% 411-325 (736)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$49.9	$49.8	-$0.57	78% 8295-2299 (10594)
CarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.2¢	$18.77	$6.86	-$10.57	68% 4056-1940 (5996)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$5.98	$5.92	-$0.06	—

ImJustKen

Invested

$1,376.18

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$153.17

Record

53%

3017-2635 (5652)

theta-thunbergCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$84.6

PnL

+$23.44

Record

56%

411-325 (736)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$49.9

Value

$49.8

PnL

-$0.57

Record

78%

8295-2299 (10594)

CarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.77

Value

$6.86

PnL

-$10.57

Record

68%

4056-1940 (5996)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.98

Value

$5.92

PnL

-$0.06

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

515h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.