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3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$342.31

Smart Money Entry

83.6¢ → 95.2¢

+14% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,662

Combined PnL+$183.05

Yes2 traders

Total Value$356.02

Total Shares6,138

Combined PnL+$159.26

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

504h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ImJustKen	Noavg 82.5¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$186.6	53% 3017-2635 (5652)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 10.3¢	$1.23	$333.05	+$180.88	52% 986-911 (1897)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$49.6	$96.95	-$3.41	78% 8295-2299 (10594)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$44.58	$22.97	-$21.62	69% 2048-909 (2957)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$6.82	$6.67	-$0.14	—

ImJustKen

Invested

$1,282.88

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$186.6

Record

53%

3017-2635 (5652)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$1.23

Value

$333.05

PnL

+$180.88

Record

52%

986-911 (1897)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$49.6

Value

$96.95

PnL

-$3.41

Record

78%

8295-2299 (10594)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.58

Value

$22.97

PnL

-$21.62

Record

69%

2048-909 (2957)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$6.82

Value

$6.67

PnL

-$0.14

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

504h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.3%

95.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.