Will Tochigi City FC win on 2026-10-25?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 90¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$3.6K
-$22.03
92.5¢ → 90¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO Momo63 | Noavg 94¢ | $3.7K | $3.4K | -$75 | 93% 707-53 (760) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 64¢ | $126.1 | $177.32 | +$51.22 | 68% 30977-14876 (45853) |
RI RichieRicher<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $6.99 | $6.43 | +$1.75 | 53% 553-495 (1048) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $2.48 | $2.48 | +$0 | 58% 1429-1045 (2474) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.