Will Shōnan Bellmāre win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 55¢ · $934 held · ends Oct 25

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$933.81

Combined PnL

$8.96

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 54.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$597.67

Total Shares1,107

Combined PnL+$10.66

Yes2 traders

Total Value$113.07

Total Shares245

Combined PnL-$1.7

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 54¢	$307.97	$305.22	-$2.75	68% 30779-14814 (45593)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Noavg 52¢	$272.68	$285.79	+$13.11	47% 1955-2177 (4132)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 52.6¢	$219.65	$223.06	+$3.41	54% 13697-11517 (25214)
└ No leg	Noavg 52.6¢	$145.59	$148.2	+$2.61
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46¢	$74.06	$74.87	+$0.81
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$90.85	$89.93	-$0.92	52% 16158-14689 (30847)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$23.92	$23.14	-$0.78	59% 13747-9558 (23305)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 53¢	$6.36	$6.66	+$0.3	58% 1363-997 (2360)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$307.97

Value

$305.22

PnL

-$2.75

Record

68%

30779-14814 (45593)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Invested

$272.68

Value

$285.79

PnL

+$13.11

Record

47%

1955-2177 (4132)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$219.65

Value

$223.06

PnL

+$3.41

Record

54%

13697-11517 (25214)

Both legs:

No$145.5952.6¢+$2.61

Yes$74.0646¢+$0.81

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.85

Value

$89.93

PnL

-$0.92

Record

52%

16158-14689 (30847)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.92

Value

$23.14

PnL

-$0.78

Record

59%

13747-9558 (23305)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$6.36

Value

$6.66

PnL

+$0.3

Record

58%

1363-997 (2360)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.