Will Sagan Tosu win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 99¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

-$71.51

Smart Money Entry

92.9¢ → 98.6¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares3,975

Combined PnL+$83.46

No5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares9,293

Combined PnL-$154.97

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Yesavg 97¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	-$12.25	93% 703-53 (756)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 39¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$144.85	52% 16123-14661 (30784)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Yesavg 58.6¢	$282.5	$318.36	+$35.86	54% 13658-11474 (25132)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58.6¢	$145.23	$193.44	+$48.21
└ No leg	Noavg 39.6¢	$137.27	$124.92	-$12.35
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 58.5¢	$707.07	$295.7	+$82.03	58% 31334-22653 (53987)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 2.8¢	$117.38	$119.74	+$2.36	50% 8710-8632 (17342)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$62.68	$71.73	+$9.04	68% 30725-14776 (45501)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$67.77	$64.2	-$3.57	47% 1952-2174 (4126)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 63.5¢	$15.31	$19.95	+$4.64	58% 1321-965 (2286)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$16.17	$7.23	-$8.93	52% 5483-5086 (10569)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 2.9¢	$0.13	$0.15	+$0.02	55% 43048-35397 (78445)

Momo63

Yes

Invested

$3,395

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$12.25

Record

93%

703-53 (756)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$1,896.8

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$144.85

Record

52%

16123-14661 (30784)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$282.5

Value

$318.36

PnL

+$35.86

Record

54%

13658-11474 (25132)

Both legs:

Yes$145.2358.6¢+$48.21

No$137.2739.6¢-$12.35

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$707.07

Value

$295.7

PnL

+$82.03

Record

58%

31334-22653 (53987)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$117.38

Value

$119.74

PnL

+$2.36

Record

50%

8710-8632 (17342)

UpTheBlues<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.68

Value

$71.73

PnL

+$9.04

Record

68%

30725-14776 (45501)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100

Invested

$67.77

Value

$64.2

PnL

-$3.57

Record

47%

1952-2174 (4126)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.31

Value

$19.95

PnL

+$4.64

Record

58%

1321-965 (2286)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$16.17

Value

$7.23

PnL

-$8.93

Record

52%

5483-5086 (10569)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.15

PnL

+$0.02

Record

55%

43048-35397 (78445)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.