Will Montedio Yamagata win on 2026-10-25?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 98¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 33%
$11.4K
$128.05
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO Momo63 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $11.4K | $11.3K | +$162.86 | 93% 703-53 (756) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $67.63 | $52.29 | -$15.33 | 55% 43123-35478 (78601) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $62.9 | $43.42 | -$19.48 | 50% 8728-8659 (17387) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.