Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (96%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Kataller Toyama vs. Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo: O/U 3.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 3.8¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 80%
$4.6K
$-1.2K
37.4¢ → 3.8¢
-90% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 96%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Overavg 38¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | -$0 | 55% 43048-35397 (78445) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 93.9¢ | $451.52 | $457.91 | +$6.39 | 68% 30725-14776 (45501) |
 HRTradingCTR | Overavg 38¢ | $375.63 | $375.63 | -$0 | 58% 1321-965 (2286) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 35.8¢ | $1.4K | $231.96 | $-1.2K | 52% 16123-14661 (30784) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 38.6¢ | $197.09 | $158.24 | -$1.19 | 58% 31334-22653 (53987) |
RN1CTRInvested
$3,336.4
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
43048-35397 (78445)
Invested
$451.52
Value
$457.91
PnL
+$6.39
Record
68%
30725-14776 (45501)
HRTradingCTRInvested
$375.63
Value
$375.63
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
1321-965 (2286)
Invested
$1,431.62
Value
$231.96
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
52%
16123-14661 (30784)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$197.09
Value
$158.24
PnL
-$1.19
Record
58%
31334-22653 (53987)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.