Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (71%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Iwaki FC vs. Júbilo Iwata: O/U 2.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 30¢ · $630 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 43%
$629.58
-$86.33
45.7¢ → 29.5¢
-35% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 71%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 45.6¢ | $412.89 | $297 | -$115.9 | 52% 16158-14689 (30847) |
 RN1 | Underavg 55¢ | $115.35 | $116.4 | +$1.05 | 55% 43123-35478 (78601) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 45.5¢ | $76.76 | $94.41 | +$17.65 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $82.34 | $78.76 | -$3.58 | 54% 13697-11517 (25214) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $24.93 | $38.78 | +$13.85 | 51% 6464-6262 (12726) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 39.5¢ | $2.63 | $3.25 | +$0.62 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
KY Kyn008CTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $1 | $0.98 | -$0.02 | 51% 189-185 (374) |
Invested
$412.89
Value
$297
PnL
-$115.9
Record
52%
16158-14689 (30847)
RN1Invested
$115.35
Value
$116.4
PnL
+$1.05
Record
55%
43123-35478 (78601)
Invested
$76.76
Value
$94.41
PnL
+$17.65
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
Invested
$82.34
Value
$78.76
PnL
-$3.58
Record
54%
13697-11517 (25214)
Invested
$24.93
Value
$38.78
PnL
+$13.85
Record
51%
6464-6262 (12726)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.63
Value
$3.25
PnL
+$0.62
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
Invested
$1
Value
$0.98
PnL
-$0.02
Record
51%
189-185 (374)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.