Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (75%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Iwaki FC vs. Júbilo Iwata: O/U 1.5
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 25¢ · $321 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Under
3
Under 33%
$320.57
$39.8
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 20¢ | $174 | $217.5 | +$43.5 | 52% 16158-14689 (30847) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 75¢ | $63 | $60.48 | -$2.52 | 54% 13697-11517 (25214) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 74¢ | $43.77 | $42.59 | -$1.18 | 58% 31395-22700 (54095) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.