Will Júbilo Iwata win on 2026-10-25?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 93¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 50%
$8.3K
$155.93
89.8¢ → 92.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO Momo63 | Noavg 89.9¢ | $7.3K | $7.5K | +$209.41 | 93% 703-53 (756) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 9.5¢ | $291.08 | $306.4 | +$15.32 | 55% 43123-35478 (78601) |
FO foooool | Noavg 86.8¢ | $242.94 | $242.2 | -$0.74 | 51% 6464-6262 (12726) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 10.9¢ | $210.99 | $145.44 | -$65.55 | 52% 16158-14689 (30847) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.6¢ | $24.72 | $21.45 | -$3.27 | 50% 8728-8659 (17387) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 81.3¢ | $19.5 | $20.76 | +$1.26 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $3.39 | $3.26 | -$0.13 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $1.05 | $0.68 | -$0.38 | 58% 16089-11745 (27834) |
Invested
$7,340.48
Value
$7.5K
PnL
+$209.41
Record
93%
703-53 (756)
RN1CTRInvested
$291.08
Value
$306.4
PnL
+$15.32
Record
55%
43123-35478 (78601)
Invested
$242.94
Value
$242.2
PnL
-$0.74
Record
51%
6464-6262 (12726)
Invested
$210.99
Value
$145.44
PnL
-$65.55
Record
52%
16158-14689 (30847)
Invested
$24.72
Value
$21.45
PnL
-$3.27
Record
50%
8728-8659 (17387)
Invested
$19.5
Value
$20.76
PnL
+$1.26
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.39
Value
$3.26
PnL
-$0.13
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
Invested
$1.05
Value
$0.68
PnL
-$0.38
Record
58%
16089-11745 (27834)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.