Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (66%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Iwaki FC win on 2026-10-25?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 35¢ · $587 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
1 arb excluded
$586.8
-$25.57
60.3¢ → 34.5¢
-43% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 35%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Noavg 61.5¢ | $235.44 | $261.31 | +$25.87 | 54% 13697-11517 (25214) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 61.5¢ | $172.74 | $157.36 | -$15.38 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 38¢ | $62.7 | $103.95 | +$41.25 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 61.2¢ | $395.09 | $249.28 | -$21.81 | 58% 31395-22700 (54095) |
FO foooool<$100 | Yesavg 63¢ | $52.03 | $52.86 | +$0.83 | 51% 6464-6262 (12726) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 65¢ | $8 | $8.3 | +$0.31 | 55% 43123-35478 (78601) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $10.83 | $6.99 | -$3.84 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $5.87 | $5.71 | -$0.16 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $1.85 | -$0.95 | 58% 16089-11745 (27834) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $0.45 | $0.49 | +$0.04 | 50% 8728-8659 (17387) |
Invested
$235.44
Value
$261.31
PnL
+$25.87
Record
54%
13697-11517 (25214)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$395.09
Value
$249.28
PnL
-$21.81
Record
58%
31395-22700 (54095)
Invested
$52.03
Value
$52.86
PnL
+$0.83
Record
51%
6464-6262 (12726)
RN1<$100Invested
$8
Value
$8.3
PnL
+$0.31
Record
55%
43123-35478 (78601)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$10.83
Value
$6.99
PnL
-$3.84
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
Invested
$5.87
Value
$5.71
PnL
-$0.16
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$1.85
PnL
-$0.95
Record
58%
16089-11745 (27834)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0.49
PnL
+$0.04
Record
50%
8728-8659 (17387)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.