Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (57%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Blaublitz Akita vs. FC Imabari: O/U 1.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 43¢ · $477 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 67%
$477.35
-$170.09
58.6¢ → 43¢
-27% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 43%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 58.7¢ | $537.64 | $394.11 | -$143.53 | 52% 16158-14689 (30847) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 58.3¢ | $108.18 | $79.81 | -$28.37 | 55% 43123-35478 (78601) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 27¢ | $1.62 | $3.42 | +$1.8 | 50% 7629-7782 (15411) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.