Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

FC Imabari leading at halftime?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 24¢ · $542 held · ended Oct 25

Yes24¢No76¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$542.11

Combined PnL

$11.61

Smart Money Entry

25.5¢ → 24¢

-6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$307.27

Total Shares1,183

Combined PnL+$6.17

No2 traders

Total Value$234.84

Total Shares309

Combined PnL+$5.44

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812CTR	Yesavg 25.6¢	$300	$304.87	+$4.87	33% 65-130 (195)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 74.5¢	$149	$142.12	+$3	58% 31334-22653 (53987)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 74¢	$90.28	$92.72	+$2.44	54% 13658-11474 (25132)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$1.1	$2.4	+$1.3	58% 1321-965 (2286)

0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812CTR

Yes

Invested

$300

Value

$304.87

PnL

+$4.87

Record

33%

65-130 (195)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$149

Value

$142.12

PnL

+$3

Record

58%

31334-22653 (53987)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$90.28

Value

$92.72

PnL

+$2.44

Record

54%

13658-11474 (25132)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.1

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$1.3

Record

58%

1321-965 (2286)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.9%

24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$285.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

385.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.