Will Vegalta Sendai win on 2026-10-25?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 88¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$7.5K
$283.83
56.5¢ → 87.5¢
+55% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 49.2¢ | $2.9K | $5.0K | +$249.35 | 52% 16123-14661 (30784) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 84.7¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$11.48 | 68% 30725-14776 (45501) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 49¢ | $652.99 | $600.96 | +$12.75 | 58% 31334-22653 (53987) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 48.2¢ | $265.45 | $275.18 | +$9.73 | 54% 13658-11474 (25132) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Noavg 52.3¢ | $7.85 | $8.77 | +$0.92 | 58% 16077-11734 (27811) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $6.84 | $6.84 | +$0 | 50% 8710-8632 (17342) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 55.3¢ | $5.31 | $4.92 | -$0.39 | 58% 1321-965 (2286) |
Invested
$2,927.96
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$249.35
Record
52%
16123-14661 (30784)
Invested
$1,641.11
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$11.48
Record
68%
30725-14776 (45501)
VeryLucky888Invested
$652.99
Value
$600.96
PnL
+$12.75
Record
58%
31334-22653 (53987)
Invested
$265.45
Value
$275.18
PnL
+$9.73
Record
54%
13658-11474 (25132)
Invested
$7.85
Value
$8.77
PnL
+$0.92
Record
58%
16077-11734 (27811)
Invested
$6.84
Value
$6.84
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
8710-8632 (17342)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.31
Value
$4.92
PnL
-$0.39
Record
58%
1321-965 (2286)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.