Will Albirex Niigata win on 2026-10-25?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 63¢ · $313 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$313.33
$159.99
Research grade
NeutralYes at 63%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 8.1¢ | $26.53 | $188.96 | +$162.43 | 52% 16123-14661 (30784) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 77.8¢ | $92.85 | $91.95 | -$0.91 | 50% 8710-8632 (17342) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $15.36 | $14.02 | -$1.34 | 55% 43048-35397 (78445) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 23¢ | $120.22 | $8.96 | -$1.08 | 58% 31334-22653 (53987) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $5.9 | $6.75 | +$0.85 | 58% 16077-11734 (27811) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $2.66 | $2.7 | +$0.04 | 58% 1321-965 (2286) |
Invested
$26.53
Value
$188.96
PnL
+$162.43
Record
52%
16123-14661 (30784)
Invested
$92.85
Value
$91.95
PnL
-$0.91
Record
50%
8710-8632 (17342)
RN1<$100Invested
$15.36
Value
$14.02
PnL
-$1.34
Record
55%
43048-35397 (78445)
VeryLucky888Invested
$120.22
Value
$8.96
PnL
-$1.08
Record
58%
31334-22653 (53987)
Invested
$5.9
Value
$6.75
PnL
+$0.85
Record
58%
16077-11734 (27811)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.66
Value
$2.7
PnL
+$0.04
Record
58%
1321-965 (2286)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.