Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (65%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Palermo FC vs. Carrarese Calcio: O/U 2.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 36¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
1 arb excluded
$4.5K
$245.64
55.5¢ → 35.5¢
-36% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 36%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Overavg 55¢ | $2.9K | $3.2K | +$316.56 | 55% 43540-35826 (79366) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 45.6¢ | $509.23 | $536.16 | +$26.94 | 52% 16287-14836 (31123) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 45.6¢ | $348.34 | $412.27 | +$63.93 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 59.7¢ | $160.88 | $123.89 | -$37 | |
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 39¢ | $324.25 | $324.25 | +$0 | 59% 13928-9661 (23589) |
FO fooooolCTR | Overavg 68¢ | $176.16 | $154.06 | -$22.1 | 51% 6565-6327 (12892) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 56.8¢ | $205.44 | $141.18 | -$64.26 | 68% 31167-14971 (46138) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 32¢ | $70.59 | $86.03 | +$15.44 | 50% 8808-8746 (17554) |
RN1CTRInvested
$2,900.56
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$316.56
Record
55%
43540-35826 (79366)
Invested
$509.23
Value
$536.16
PnL
+$26.94
Record
52%
16287-14836 (31123)
Both legs:
Invested
$324.25
Value
$324.25
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
13928-9661 (23589)
Invested
$176.16
Value
$154.06
PnL
-$22.1
Record
51%
6565-6327 (12892)
Invested
$205.44
Value
$141.18
PnL
-$64.26
Record
68%
31167-14971 (46138)
Invested
$70.59
Value
$86.03
PnL
+$15.44
Record
50%
8808-8746 (17554)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.