Palermo FC vs. Carrarese Calcio: O/U 1.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 72¢ · $18K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
1 arb excluded
$18.3K
$2.2K
72.9¢ → 72¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 72%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 72.9¢ | $11.3K | $13.7K | +$2.4K | 55% 43540-35826 (79366) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 27.2¢ | $3.1K | $2.8K | -$245.67 | 68% 31167-14971 (46138) |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Underavg 29¢ | $1.4K | $1.0K | -$344.92 | 50% 8808-8746 (17554) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 84¢ | $577.5 | $570.63 | -$6.88 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 29¢ | $816.93 | $478.89 | -$338.04 | |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 21.8¢ | $511.14 | $557.61 | +$46.47 | 52% 16287-14836 (31123) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 83¢ | $66.88 | $66.88 | +$0 | 59% 13928-9661 (23589) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 27.9¢ | $66.55 | $40.57 | -$25.97 | 51% 6565-6327 (12892) |
RN1Invested
$11,311.81
Value
$13.7K
PnL
+$2.4K
Record
55%
43540-35826 (79366)
Invested
$3,056.86
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$245.67
Record
68%
31167-14971 (46138)
Invested
$1,394.43
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$344.92
Record
50%
8808-8746 (17554)
Both legs:
Invested
$511.14
Value
$557.61
PnL
+$46.47
Record
52%
16287-14836 (31123)
Invested
$66.88
Value
$66.88
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
13928-9661 (23589)
Invested
$66.55
Value
$40.57
PnL
-$25.97
Record
51%
6565-6327 (12892)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.