Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Palermo FC win on 2026-10-25?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 42¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$8.2K
$50.85
42.1¢ → 41.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 42%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 42¢ | $3.7K | $3.7K | +$45.21 | 68% 31121-14960 (46081) |
 RN1CTR | Noavg 45¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | -$23.79 | 55% 43532-35822 (79354) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Yesavg 56.8¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$79.24 | 52% 16273-14816 (31089) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 56.8¢ | $897.23 | $860.64 | -$36.59 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 34.8¢ | $375.38 | $491.21 | +$115.84 | |
KY Kyn008CTR | Noavg 32.1¢ | $432.59 | $444.14 | +$11.55 | 50% 191-188 (379) |
 0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22 | Yesavg 63¢ | $315 | $335 | +$20 | 64% 980-563 (1543) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $50 | $48.03 | -$1.97 | 51% 6539-6324 (12863) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 68¢ | $20.05 | $19.89 | -$0.15 | 58% 1463-1078 (2541) |
Invested
$3,688.51
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$45.21
Record
68%
31121-14960 (46081)
RN1CTRInvested
$2,274.21
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$23.79
Record
55%
43532-35822 (79354)
Invested
$1,272.61
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$79.24
Record
52%
16273-14816 (31089)
Both legs:
Invested
$432.59
Value
$444.14
PnL
+$11.55
Record
50%
191-188 (379)
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22Invested
$315
Value
$335
PnL
+$20
Record
64%
980-563 (1543)
Invested
$50
Value
$48.03
PnL
-$1.97
Record
51%
6539-6324 (12863)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$20.05
Value
$19.89
PnL
-$0.15
Record
58%
1463-1078 (2541)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.