Will Palermo FC vs. Carrarese Calcio end in a draw?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 75¢ · $474 held · ended Oct 25

Yes25¢No75¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$474.1

Combined PnL

$22.46

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$334.58

Total Shares415

Combined PnL+$7.39

Yes3 traders

Total Value$139.52

Total Shares558

Combined PnL+$15.07

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO foooool	Noavg 75.2¢	$327.19	$334.58	+$7.39	51% 6565-6327 (12892)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.7¢	$81.14	$82.13	+$0.98	55% 43540-35826 (79366)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$24	$37.5	+$13.5	52% 16287-14836 (31123)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.3¢	$19.31	$19.9	+$0.59	58% 1472-1088 (2560)

foooool

Invested

$327.19

Value

$334.58

PnL

+$7.39

Record

51%

6565-6327 (12892)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.14

Value

$82.13

PnL

+$0.98

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24

Value

$37.5

PnL

+$13.5

Record

52%

16287-14836 (31123)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.31

Value

$19.9

PnL

+$0.59

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.