Will Carrarese Calcio win on 2026-10-25?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 84¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25

Yes17¢No83¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$64.64

Smart Money Entry

83.7¢ → 83.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,817

Combined PnL-$68.57

Yes3 traders

Total Value$218.95

Total Shares1,249

Combined PnL+$3.94

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 82.7¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$32.15	50% 8804-8737 (17541)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 81¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$240.77	52% 16273-14816 (31089)
└ No leg	Noavg 81¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$6.2
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 13.9¢	$704.14	$938.71	+$234.57
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$870.5	$834.75	-$35.75	55% 43532-35822 (79354)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19¢	$522.5	$508.75	-$13.75
└ No leg	Noavg 87¢	$348	$326	-$22
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 87¢	$618.09	$600.58	-$17.51	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
FO fooooolCTR	Yesavg 17.1¢	$203.16	$208.51	+$5.35	51% 6539-6324 (12863)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 82¢	$221.29	$204.98	-$16.31	59% 13895-9640 (23535)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 86.3¢	$98.34	$95.19	-$3.15	58% 1463-1078 (2541)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Noavg 86¢	$91.9	$92.43	+$0.53	65% 1536-822 (2358)
LA lavendergoomsCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$7.38	$6.32	-$0.79	60% 2385-1596 (3981)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$4.75	$4.13	-$0.63	63% 1393-822 (2215)

SnakeBall

Invested

$2,163.86

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$32.15

Record

50%

8804-8737 (17541)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$1,708.8

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$240.77

Record

52%

16273-14816 (31089)

Both legs:

No$1,004.6681¢+$6.2

Yes$704.1413.9¢+$234.57

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$870.5

Value

$834.75

PnL

-$35.75

Record

55%

43532-35822 (79354)

Both legs:

Yes$522.519¢-$13.75

No$34887¢-$22

UpTheBlues

Invested

$618.09

Value

$600.58

PnL

-$17.51

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

fooooolCTR

Yes

Invested

$203.16

Value

$208.51

PnL

+$5.35

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$221.29

Value

$204.98

PnL

-$16.31

Record

59%

13895-9640 (23535)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$98.34

Value

$95.19

PnL

-$3.15

Record

58%

1463-1078 (2541)

darkumbreon88<$100

Invested

$91.9

Value

$92.43

PnL

+$0.53

Record

65%

1536-822 (2358)

lavendergoomsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.38

Value

$6.32

PnL

-$0.79

Record

60%

2385-1596 (3981)

spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.13

PnL

-$0.63

Record

63%

1393-822 (2215)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.