Palermo FC vs. Carrarese Calcio: Both Teams to Score
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 58¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$2.8K
$46.66
49.7¢ → 58¢
+17% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 58%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 49.7¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$80.69 | 68% 31167-14971 (46138) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 54.7¢ | $648.74 | $601.72 | -$38.31 | 58% 31667-22925 (54592) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 51¢ | $241.23 | $234.14 | -$7.09 | 55% 43540-35826 (79366) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $73.08 | $82.82 | +$9.74 | 54% 13815-11594 (25409) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48.9¢ | $53.23 | $54.64 | +$1.41 | 51% 6565-6327 (12892) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 46.5¢ | $2.56 | $2.78 | +$0.22 | 58% 1472-1088 (2560) |
Invested
$1,762.31
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$80.69
Record
68%
31167-14971 (46138)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$648.74
Value
$601.72
PnL
-$38.31
Record
58%
31667-22925 (54592)
RN1CTRInvested
$241.23
Value
$234.14
PnL
-$7.09
Record
55%
43540-35826 (79366)
Invested
$73.08
Value
$82.82
PnL
+$9.74
Record
54%
13815-11594 (25409)
Invested
$53.23
Value
$54.64
PnL
+$1.41
Record
51%
6565-6327 (12892)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.56
Value
$2.78
PnL
+$0.22
Record
58%
1472-1088 (2560)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.