Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Leticia Romanova, while the market favors Rosie Cho (100%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W75 Glasgow: Leticia Romanova vs Rosie Cho

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Leticia Romanova (43%) · Leticia Romanova at 0.1¢ · $683 held · ends Nov 1

Leticia Romanova<1¢Rosie Cho>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Leticia Romanova

Consensus Traders

Leticia Romanova 43%

Total Value

$682.51

Combined PnL

-$163.38

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidLeticia Romanova at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Leticia Romanova

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Rosie Cho 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Leticia Romanova0%

Rosie Cho100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Leticia Romanova3 traders

Total Value$391.23

Total Shares790

Combined PnL-$75.03

Rosie Cho4 traders

Total Value$291.28

Total Shares540

Combined PnL-$88.34

Leticia Romanova — 43%Rosie Cho — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OL olivereaCTR	Leticia Romanovaavg 61.1¢	$445.77	$361.35	-$84.42	58% 271-193 (464)
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18	Rosie Choavg 79.4¢	$186.64	$118.68	-$67.96	66% 467-236 (703)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Rosie Choavg 54.3¢	$125.98	$117.27	-$8.72	63% 22715-13447 (36162)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Rosie Choavg 95¢	$57	$49.02	-$7.98	95% 14059-804 (14863)
US User7429CTR<$100	Leticia Romanovaavg 33¢	$18.02	$27.04	+$9.02	57% 5976-4437 (10413)
PA pauleta23<$100	Rosie Choavg 79.9¢	$10	$6.32	-$3.68	71% 17700-7191 (24891)
0X 0x1111111111CTR<$100	Leticia Romanovaavg 43.1¢	$2.47	$2.84	+$0.37	64% 1587-910 (2497)

olivereaCTR

Leticia Romanova

Invested

$445.77

Value

$361.35

PnL

-$84.42

Record

58%

271-193 (464)

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18

Rosie Cho

Invested

$186.64

Value

$118.68

PnL

-$67.96

Record

66%

467-236 (703)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Rosie Cho

Invested

$125.98

Value

$117.27

PnL

-$8.72

Record

63%

22715-13447 (36162)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Rosie Cho

Invested

$57

Value

$49.02

PnL

-$7.98

Record

95%

14059-804 (14863)

User7429CTR<$100

Leticia Romanova

Invested

$18.02

Value

$27.04

PnL

+$9.02

Record

57%

5976-4437 (10413)

pauleta23<$100

Rosie Cho

Invested

$10

Value

$6.32

PnL

-$3.68

Record

71%

17700-7191 (24891)

0x1111111111CTR<$100

Leticia Romanova

Invested

$2.47

Value

$2.84

PnL

+$0.37

Record

64%

1587-910 (2497)

Research grade

AvoidLeticia Romanova at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Leticia Romanova

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Rosie Cho 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Leticia Romanova wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.