M15 Selva Gardena: Simone Massellani vs Pietro Orlando Fellin
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Pietro Orlando Fellin (33%) · Pietro Orlando Fellin at 81¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
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Neutral
Pietro Orlando Fellin
3
Pietro Orlando Fellin 33%
$2.5K
$79.43
Research grade
NeutralPietro Orlando Fellin at 81%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST stepanka1234 | Pietro Orlando Fellinavg 76.6¢ | $2.2K | $2.3K | +$125.15 | 76% 26-8 (34) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Simone Massellaniavg 25.6¢ | $195.97 | $126.21 | -$40.76 | 58% 39913-28822 (68735) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Simone Massellaniavg 23.1¢ | $28.14 | $23.18 | -$4.96 | 61% 8896-5797 (14693) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.