Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Kate Murray, while the market favors Rosie Cho (61%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
W75 Glasgow: Rosie Cho vs Kate Murray
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kate Murray (80%) · Kate Murray at 39¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Kate Murray
5
Kate Murray 80%
$1.0K
-$498.11
53.7¢ → 39¢
-27% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralKate Murray at 39%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Rosie Cho 61%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Rosie Choavg 40.8¢ | $331.17 | $401.64 | +$70.47 | 60% 27537-18513 (46050) |
 poshposhCTR | Kate Murrayavg 58.3¢ | $581.36 | $289.21 | -$292.16 | 61% 8640-5569 (14209) |
 0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18CTR | Kate Murrayavg 37¢ | $411.89 | $135.58 | -$93.9 | 67% 504-250 (754) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Kate Murrayavg 55.9¢ | $204.23 | $102.27 | -$101.96 | 50% 17388-17711 (35099) |
US User7429CTR | Kate Murrayavg 63.5¢ | $176.48 | $95.92 | -$80.56 | 58% 7182-5165 (12347) |
Invested
$331.17
Value
$401.64
PnL
+$70.47
Record
60%
27537-18513 (46050)
poshposhCTRInvested
$581.36
Value
$289.21
PnL
-$292.16
Record
61%
8640-5569 (14209)
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18CTRInvested
$411.89
Value
$135.58
PnL
-$93.9
Record
67%
504-250 (754)
Invested
$204.23
Value
$102.27
PnL
-$101.96
Record
50%
17388-17711 (35099)
Invested
$176.48
Value
$95.92
PnL
-$80.56
Record
58%
7182-5165 (12347)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.